Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 16.736105 19.201209 22.088769 25.769875 30.410840 36.171537 44.035883
2025-02-16 14.004968 17.082861 21.043753 26.681021 34.800116 46.614362 66.310694
2025-02-23 12.195706 15.444274 19.879291 26.669751 37.415672 55.077928 89.997334
2025-03-02 10.908933 14.205253 18.911422 26.543332 39.597485 63.482123 119.180081
2025-03-09 10.044050 13.395192 18.369548 26.863576 42.489515 74.292997 163.152215
2025-03-16 9.070674 12.289632 17.193874 25.869994 42.677883 79.722778 199.764491
2025-03-23 8.460028 11.651843 16.649409 25.832366 44.666896 90.185515 268.263206
2025-03-30 7.740009 10.769884 15.596179 24.682565 44.031809 93.847502 318.427172
2025-04-06 7.073965 9.915624 14.498563 23.281106 42.512055 94.480478 357.769439
2025-04-13 6.545380 9.240265 13.639315 22.217878 41.533039 96.391014 412.366157
2025-04-20 6.667480 9.622427 14.631591 24.959308 50.450718 136.637138 987.653924
2025-04-27 6.510886 9.526034 14.760047 25.946214 55.318355 168.127090 2057.639665
2025-05-04 6.058317 8.913961 13.920042 24.781773 54.071330 173.246100 2867.855435
2025-05-11 5.891296 8.781549 13.965173 25.618867 59.128673 217.109561 10849.075114
2025-05-18 5.643263 8.486937 13.667838 25.609255 61.578335 251.703832 68752.257295
2025-05-25 5.406874 8.195384 13.347089 25.490002 63.663426 289.364810 NaN
2025-06-01 5.233592 8.004295 13.206037 25.791955 67.439655 351.863904 NaN
2025-06-08 4.956238 7.606627 12.613830 24.854816 66.205804 366.483861 NaN
2025-06-15 4.784318 7.392292 12.379478 24.819307 68.595977 429.924581 NaN
2025-06-22 4.531554 7.014921 11.780007 23.733620 66.295373 431.362103 NaN
2025-06-29 4.273712 6.617251 11.115849 22.408577 62.673428 409.643457 NaN
2025-07-06 4.059031 6.291733 10.586086 21.402014 60.233756 402.658776 NaN
2025-07-13 4.159211 6.559904 11.325936 23.995047 75.057520 772.124413 NaN